Economy & Finance

Mexico economy shrinks in first quarter, but beats bleakest forecasts

May 29, 2026
Mexico economy shrinks in first quarter, but beats bleakest forecasts
MEXICO CITY, May 22 (Reuters) - Mexico's economy shrank 0.6% in the ​first quarter from the previous three-month period, data from the ‌national statistics agency INEGI showed on Friday, compared with a 0.8% decline expected by economists in a Reuters poll. Latin America's second-largest economy pulled back ​after revised growth of 0.7% in the fourth quarter of ​2025.
 
"The weakness was broad-based across the major sectors, reinforcing ⁠the view that the slowdown reflects fading domestic momentum rather ​than an isolated shock," said Andres Abadia, chief LatAm economist at ​Pantheon Macroeconomics.
 
Primary activities, which include farming, fishing and mining, recorded the steepest decline with a fall of 1.7%, according to INEGI's data.
The secondary sector, which ​includes manufacturing and construction, and tertiary activities, which cover services, ​were down 1% and 0.4% respectively.
In annual terms, the economy expanded 0.2% compared ‌to ⁠a year earlier, slightly above the 0.1% growth expected by economists.

CAUTIOUS OUTLOOK

Analysts have remained cautious on Mexico's economy in 2026, expecting weak momentum to persist amid global uncertainty. The central bank's decision ​in early May ​to cut its benchmark ⁠interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.50% was divided, with board members signaling the need ​for greater caution.
 
Uncertainty around the impact of the ​U.S. and ⁠Israeli war with Iran and a sluggish economy were the main concerns, according to minutes from the meeting.
Separately on Friday, INEGI reported that ⁠Mexico's ​economic activity grew 0.4% in March from ​the prior month, beating expectations from economists.
 
Reporting by Aida Pelaez-Fernandez and Ricardo Figueroa; Additional ​reporting by Noe Torres; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Emelia Sithole-Matarise  https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexico-economy-shrinks-first-quarter-beats-bleakest-forecasts-2026-05-22/